Many traders are aware that when a market opens there are often whipsaw-like actions (or what some may call "fake outs") before a stronger trend emerges. With currencies the market is open 24 hours during the week, therefore many traders don't see the forex market as having an "opening" session. Yet this is not true. Banks in different parts of the world open for business, and with that, a larger volume enters the market. Therefore currencies are not immune from the morning "fake out." As stop levels are cleared on either side of the open price, a stronger trend will often emerge. This trend may not last, but by knowing there is often a fake out followed by a stronger move, traders can position themselves for taking advantage if they implement the proper strategy. Opens to WatchNot every currency's open is worth paying attention to. Ideally, traders will want to watch the most liquid currency pairs, and also look for pairs that see a large increase in volume/participants as the country/zone opens.
Because of how major market's business days overlap with one another, the European open is an ideal candidate for trading the open. One main reason for this is that pairs such as the GBP/USD or EUR/USD are not as heavily traded prior to the open, but when Germany opens followed one hour later by London at 3am EST (please be aware of impacts of daylight savings time) volume ensues. The yen is traded heavily in the Tokyo session but as London opens there is an overlap with the Tokyo session resulting in increased volatility for the GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. The CHF/USD is also worth watching.
Therefore we have several pairs to watch starting at about 1:30 (pre-market open) till about 4am EST (one or two hours after the markets open) to watch for a set-up. Since not all signals will occur at the same time, several pairs can be traded.
The Set-UpPrior to a major market opening, forex pairs will often move within relatively small ranges. This is not always the case though. There may be a lot of movement prior to the European open, on days such as this the set-up will be harder to see (and may not exist), therefore caution is warranted on using this strategy on such days. The set-up should be watched for on a 15 minute chart.
1. We ideally want a calm pre-market, or one that has a definable pre-market range. This range will be marked on our chart pre-market and then we will watch for the European open to begin.
2. A breakout of that range is likely to occur. We do nothing as this is quite possibly a false breakout. Ideally we want this breakout to be small, 10-30 pips (or no more than one third of the daily average range).
3. We watch for an engulfing candle pattern (or any candle which shows a strong movement in the opposite direction over one or two bars) in the opposite direction of the original breakout (for example, if the range breakout was down, we watch for a bullish engulfing pattern).
4. We make a trade in the direction of the engulfing pattern.
5. A stop is placed just below the low (high) of the bullish (bearish) engulfing pattern.
6. Profit target(s) is based on average movement during the early European session or the daily average range (trades will generally take longer to exit if using the larger daily figure).
7. Similar to a trailing stop, a new engulfing pattern in the opposite direction of our trade can be used as an optional exit.
Potential IssuesBefore showing examples of the trades, there are several things traders should be aware of. No strategy is perfect, therefore the best outcome is to aim to maximize the good trades, and minimize the losing ones (because they will occur). Here are few guidelines which can be added to the system to aid in its effectiveness:
Because of how major market's business days overlap with one another, the European open is an ideal candidate for trading the open. One main reason for this is that pairs such as the GBP/USD or EUR/USD are not as heavily traded prior to the open, but when Germany opens followed one hour later by London at 3am EST (please be aware of impacts of daylight savings time) volume ensues. The yen is traded heavily in the Tokyo session but as London opens there is an overlap with the Tokyo session resulting in increased volatility for the GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. The CHF/USD is also worth watching.
Therefore we have several pairs to watch starting at about 1:30 (pre-market open) till about 4am EST (one or two hours after the markets open) to watch for a set-up. Since not all signals will occur at the same time, several pairs can be traded.
The Set-UpPrior to a major market opening, forex pairs will often move within relatively small ranges. This is not always the case though. There may be a lot of movement prior to the European open, on days such as this the set-up will be harder to see (and may not exist), therefore caution is warranted on using this strategy on such days. The set-up should be watched for on a 15 minute chart.
1. We ideally want a calm pre-market, or one that has a definable pre-market range. This range will be marked on our chart pre-market and then we will watch for the European open to begin.
2. A breakout of that range is likely to occur. We do nothing as this is quite possibly a false breakout. Ideally we want this breakout to be small, 10-30 pips (or no more than one third of the daily average range).
3. We watch for an engulfing candle pattern (or any candle which shows a strong movement in the opposite direction over one or two bars) in the opposite direction of the original breakout (for example, if the range breakout was down, we watch for a bullish engulfing pattern).
4. We make a trade in the direction of the engulfing pattern.
5. A stop is placed just below the low (high) of the bullish (bearish) engulfing pattern.
6. Profit target(s) is based on average movement during the early European session or the daily average range (trades will generally take longer to exit if using the larger daily figure).
7. Similar to a trailing stop, a new engulfing pattern in the opposite direction of our trade can be used as an optional exit.
Potential IssuesBefore showing examples of the trades, there are several things traders should be aware of. No strategy is perfect, therefore the best outcome is to aim to maximize the good trades, and minimize the losing ones (because they will occur). Here are few guidelines which can be added to the system to aid in its effectiveness:
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